Overview of the hottest market international oil p

Market Overview: international oil prices fell, PE market prices fell

I. Market Overview

international crude oil prices fell, Asian naphtha prices fell, and Asian ethylene closed flat. The ex factory price of PE from major manufacturers has been partially reduced, the linear individual price has been reduced, and the quotation of low-voltage and high-voltage brands has been partially reduced. The price of domestic PE market fell significantly, and the linearity was particularly obvious. The atmosphere of the spot market is empty, merchants often reduce their quotations, some of them are closed and wait-and-see, there is not much downstream demand, most of the goods are received at low prices, and transactions are negotiated

II. Fundamental analysis

1. Although the commercial inventory of crude oil in the United States unexpectedly decreased significantly last week, the international oil price still fell sharply on the 19th due to the decline of the New York stock market and the European debt crisis. At the close of the day, the futures price of light crude oil for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell by $2.23 to close at $86.11 a barrel, and the futures price of Brent crude oil for December delivery in London fell by $2.76 to close at $108.39 a barrel, down 2.5%

2. Asian naphtha prices hit a one week low on Tuesday. In the first half of December, the price of naphtha naf-1h-tyo in Japan's open specification fell by $29.50 to $905.00 per ton, the lowest since it hit $874.75 per ton on October 11. Spot buying was quiet, after South Korea's Yichuan naphtha cracking Center (yncc), South Korea's Hunan petrochemical and samsungtotal bought about 175000 tons of oil products arriving in Hong Kong in the second half of November from October 13 to 17

3. On October 19, the closing price of Asian ethylene market closed flat, and CFR Northeast Asia quotation 1039 5 dollars/ton; CFR Southeast Asia quotation 1039 5 dollars/ton. The European debt crisis still suppressed the market atmosphere, the rise and fall of international oil prices were disorderly, and the panic mentality of operators was concentrated. The spot trading of ethylene was dim, and the main demand forces such as polyethylene and ethylene glycol in the downstream have "exited". In particular, polyethylene has fallen for 11 weeks since the beginning of August, with a cumulative decline of $210 to close at $1190/ton, which is an alarming degree of weakness. This month, ethylene glycol also fell by nearly $80 to close at $1180/ton CFR China. Spot supply remained loose, the digestion process of downstream raw materials was delayed, and bearish expectations remained in the future. In terms of devices, the Korean LG naphtha steam cracking device with an annual output of 900000 tons shut down yesterday due to compressor failure, and the restart time is unknown. Formosa Petrochemical has an annual output of 1.2 million tons, and the load of No. 3 naphtha steam cracking unit is about 80%

4. Today, the ex factory price of PE from major manufacturers is partially reduced, the linear individual price is reduced, and the quotation of low-voltage and high-voltage brands is partially reduced. Linearity: major manufacturers' 7042 mainstream quotation range is yuan/ton, and PetroChina Huadong (Jilin) 7042 lowered its ex factory quotation by 200 yuan/ton; Low voltage: the mainstream quotation range of 5000S of major manufacturers is RMB/ton, and the prices of some brands of Qilu Petrochemical, Zhongsha Tianjin, PetroChina East China are reduced by RMB/ton; In terms of high voltage: the main range of 2426h is yuan/ton, while Qilu Petrochemical, Yanshan Petrochemical, PetroChina East China and PetroChina Southwest 18D reduced the ex factory price by yuan/ton

5. Premier Wen Jiabao of the State Council presided over the executive meeting of the State Council on the 19th. The meeting discussed and passed the outline of strategic action for breakthroughs in mineral prospecting (2011-2020) (hereinafter referred to as the outline), requiring China to achieve new major breakthroughs in geological and mineral exploration through the implementation of the prospecting strategy, form a number of strategic continuation areas of important mineral resources, and establish a reserve system of important mineral resources, Provide strong resource guarantee and industrial support for steady and rapid economic development

III. Market Overview

crude oil prices in New York fell, naphtha prices in Asia fell, and ethylene in Asia closed flat

the price of domestic PE market has fallen significantly, and the timely promotion of industrial development achievements by the line is particularly obvious. The mainstream quotation of LLDPE in the domestic market is between yuan/ton, the mainstream quotation of high voltage is between yuan/ton, and the mainstream quotation of low voltage is between yuan/ton

1. The price of PE market in North China is stable and slightly falling. The mentality of merchants is pessimistic. They actively reduce prices and take delivery. There are few downstream inquiries, no improvement in demand, and few market transactions. It is a restorative milling process after rough machining of complex workpieces. Linear mainstream price yuan/ton. Qilu Petrochemical 7042 has no tax declaration of 9250 yuan/ton, and 6098 has no tax declaration of 10670 yuan/ton; Jihua 7042 reported 9600 yuan/ton, Daqing 5000S reported 11800 yuan/ton, and Daqing 2426h reported 11950 yuan/ton

2. The quotation of East China PE market is mainly stable, Liansu futures fell by the limit, the market atmosphere is pessimistic, the quotation of merchants fell significantly, the downstream is more wait-and-see, and there is almost no transaction in the market. Linear mainstream price yuan/ton. Jihua 7042 reported 9800 yuan/ton, 7050 reported 9900 yuan/ton, Yangzi Petrochemical 2426h reported 11900 yuan/ton, 2426k reported 120005000s reported 12000 yuan/ton; Lanhua 7042 reported 9450 yuan/ton, Yangzi Petrochemical 7042 reported 9700 yuan/ton, and Daqing 5000s11800 yuan/ton

3. The quotation of PE market in South China fell slightly. Merchants were more bearish on the aftermarket and actively shipped. Downstream manufacturers had a wait-and-see attitude, with poor demand and less transactions. Linear mainstream is in yuan/ton. Maohua Petrochemical reported 7042 yuan/ton, 2426k fell 50 yuan to 11750 yuan/ton, 7144 Lecong self delivery reported 11350 yuan/ton, 2426h fell 50 yuan to 11900 yuan/ton, to 11800 yuan/ton. Fulian 7050 reported 9730 yuan/ton, Guangzhou Petrochemical 7144 reported 9900 yuan/ton without tax, and Daqing 5000S Guangzhou self submitted 12000 yuan/ton

IV. outlook

although the commercial inventory of crude oil in the United States unexpectedly decreased significantly last week, affected by the decline of the New York stock market and the European debt crisis, the international oil price fell sharply on the 19th, the international crude oil price fell, the Asian naphtha price fell, and the Asian ethylene closed flat. The ex factory price of PE from major manufacturers has been partially reduced, the linear individual price has been reduced, and the quotation of low-voltage and high-voltage brands has been partially reduced. The price of domestic PE market fell significantly, and the linearity was particularly obvious. The atmosphere of the spot market is empty, merchants often reduce their quotations, some of them are closed and wait-and-see, there is not much downstream demand, most of the goods are received at low prices, and transactions are negotiated. PE market price is expected to be volatile and weak in the near future

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